Before It Is Too Late: A Warning to Europe — A Letter from Olga Karach
Ställ om!, a Swedish digital magazine focused on peace and climate justice published Olga Karach’s letter. It discusses the difficult situation faced by Belarusian political refugees in Lithuania.
Olga Karach warns that Latvia’s retreat from international human rights commitments is not an isolated political episode, but an alarming sign of an authoritarian turn in the Baltic region. What began as pressure on «inconvenient» groups — Belarusian and Russian refugees, migrants, and minorities — is now spreading to women, children, the elderly, people with disabilities, and civil society as a whole. This letter is a wake-up call to Europe before the erosion of democracy becomes irreversible.
A Letter from Olga Karach
I would like to draw your attention to a deeply troubling development that I, as a Belarusian human rights defender with more than 25 years of experience, am witnessing in the Baltic region — in this case, in Latvia.
On September 25, 2025, Latvia’s parliament, the Saeima, voted to initiate the procedure for denouncing and withdrawing from the Istanbul Convention — the Convention on preventing and combating violence against women and domestic violence. So far, Latvia has not officially withdrawn; the vote concerns the start of the withdrawal process.
I would also like to remind you that on April 16, 2025, the Latvian parliament voted to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention — the Convention on the Prohibition of Anti-Personnel Mines, which bans the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of anti-personnel mines. The withdrawal enters into force six months after the official notification.
After more than 25 years of extensive work in the field of human rights, I can state the following with certainty: when a state embarks on an authoritarian path, it never starts with strong, powerful, or privileged groups. It starts with vulnerable and marginalized people — with the «strange» and «inconvenient» groups that the public strongly dislikes and that are therefore the least protected. Repression against such groups is easier to justify as «necessary», «legitimate», or «in the interest of national security».
In recent years, these «inconvenient» groups in the Baltic states have been Belarusians and Russians — migrants, political refugees and ethnic minorities. Around them, what researchers call necropolitical spaces have been actively formed — zones of exception where the rule of law no longer applies and decisions about people’s lives, freedom, and even death are made arbitrarily by state institutions, outside any legal framework.
My personal experience shows that such necropolitical methods, like a malignant tumor, always spread if they are not stopped in time. It is never the case that human rights can be violated for one group while remaining intact for others. Once this process has begun, the erosion of democratic institutions inevitably follows.
The processes now taking place in the Baltic states may have begun earlier, but they became especially visible during the war in Ukraine.
We feel this every day — we are attacked not only by Russia and Belarus for our human rights work and our principled positions, but, unfortunately, also by the countries from which we once expected solidarity and support.
The methods of repression and state pressure are gradually expanding and targeting ever larger parts of society.
In the end, the system leaves no one alone — Belarus’s experience proves this beyond any doubt.
There are no «exceptions»: when violations of human rights are accepted, when a state decides to abandon the democratic path, it is only a matter of time before every person is affected personally.
We Belarusians did not understand this 30 years ago.
But today we understand it all too well — and we have paid a very high and bloody price for that understanding.
Some have paid with their lives.
The question is: do the citizens of Europe understand it now?
Historically, the Baltic states have been regarded as «islands of democracy» after the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, recent years have shown that authoritarian rule, militarization, and the suppression of civil rights and freedoms are spreading within the European space — above all in the Baltic states. This is an extremely dangerous trend, like a poison corroding the very foundation of the European Union — a project built on peace and democracy for all the peoples of the community.
The massive violations of our rights as refugees and migrants — including the deportation of political refugees and conscientious objectors back to Belarus and Russia — have largely gone unnoticed by everyone. Politicians were silent. Human rights organizations were silent. Journalists were silent. And so, with this silence — and often with tacit support — the erosion of democratic institutions has accelerated.
Today we see how necropolitical spaces and methods of state pressure — false accusations, disinformation campaigns, witch hunts, and attempts to silence human rights defenders and peace activists — are now spreading to new groups and categories.
The state is now targeting those it considers «secondary» or «superfluous» in a militarized society: women, children, the elderly, people with disabilities — all those who cannot hold a weapon and take part in militarization.
It is in this context that the Latvian parliament’s decision of 25 September 2025 to initiate withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention becomes a particularly alarming signal. There are enough votes in parliament to push this decision through.
Withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention is a dangerous indicator that the necropolitical zones in the Baltic states are expanding — and they are hungry for new victims. This step opens the door to dismantling the state’s international obligations to protect women from violence, promote equality, and cooperate with civil society.
One may discuss the content of the Istanbul Convention or debate the number of «genders,» but one thing is clear: Latvia’s withdrawal is not about protecting the «traditional family» — it is a clear sign that even the rights of traditional families are at risk.
I emphasize again: Latvia has not yet formally withdrawn from the Istanbul Convention, but the vote on 25 September 2025 is a clear signal — and the first step along that path.
I urge you to pay particular attention to Latvia as a case that may become a dangerous precedent for all of Europe.
It is important to closely monitor, act publicly, and respond to every legislative initiative or decision that weakens the protection of civil rights — especially the rights of women, minorities, refugees, and migrants.
A prominent Lithuanian politician once said at a solidarity meeting with Belarus:
«Belarusians, feel at home here in Lithuania».
At the time, I perceived these words as an expression of hospitality, solidarity, and support.
Unfortunately, today I realize that they were meant literally.
It is time for European civil society to wake up — before it is too late. Otherwise, one day all of us here may wake up «in Belarus.»
With warmth, solidarity, and hope
for renewed commitment,
Olga Karach
The issue of the magazine, dated November 6, 2025, which includes this letter
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